Week 10 Preview

Patriots (6-2) @ Colts (8-0)

AND HERE…WE…GO…! Biggest game of the NFL season. Battle between two perennial heavy weight power house teams, the two best teams of the decade. This rivalry has been absolutely epic in every way, probably the most intense rivalry of the decade. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are the two best QBs of the decade, leading the two winningest franchises of the decade. Both teams are the only NFL teams that have a .700 win percentage this decade. Brady and Manning have won the last two NFL MVP awards, and they combined for 4 super bowl championships in the decade. The best part about Brady and Manning is the poise, and class these guys present and the respect they have for each other. This rivalry has some crazy history, and this game is on Sunday night. IT DOESN’T GET BETTER THAN THIS. I couldn’t watch ESPN for more than 2 minutes at any point this week without seeing some sort of Pats Colts coverage, Brady/Manning interviews, ect. It is going to be an electric atmosphere in Indianapolis; I wouldn’t miss this game for anything.

The Pats and Colts have met 11 times (including playoffs) since the Tom Brady era began midway through the year in 2001. All 11 of these games were great and intense games. 3 of the 4 times these teams combined to win the super bowl, they had to go through the other team to get there. The Patriots always seemed to have the Colts number, but the Colts have had the edge in the rivalry recently. The first game on this list was Tom Brady’s first game as a full time starter. Here is a list of the meetings since ’01: (Playoff meetings are marked with an asterisk)

New England leads 7-4
Nov 2, 2008	NWE 15, IND 18
Nov 4, 2007	NWE 24, IND 20
Jan 21, 2007	NWE 34, IND 38*
Nov 5, 2006	NWE 20, @IND 27
Nov 7, 2005	NWE 21, @IND 40
Jan 16, 2005	NWE 20, @IND 3*
Sep 9, 2004	NWE 27, @IND 24
Jan 18, 2004	NWE 24, @IND 14*
Nov 30, 2003	NWE 38, IND 34
Oct 21, 2001	NWE 38, IND 17
Sep 30, 2001	NWE 44, @IND 13

Brady and Manning are two of the sharpest, smartest and most talented QBs of all time. However not just the QBs will dictate the outcome of the game. Here are the keys to the game for a Pats victory.

KEYS TO THE GAME

EXPOSE COLTS SECONDARY

The Colts secondary is banged up. Safety Bob Sanders, who is always injured, is injured again and will not play for the rest of the season. They are missing two cornerbacks also. The Colts will have to deal with it, since the Patriots secondary always had more injuries than that and they still got by. The Patriots need to spread the field AND throw some short passes to the Slot Machine, as well as screens. They need to attack that inexperienced secondary. Even though the Colts DB’s are inexperienced though, they are NOT by any means poor defenders. The Patriots are second in the NFL in points allowed per game, but the Colts are ranked first.

STICK ‘EM!

Bring back the old times. We have the defensive personnel to hit people in the mouth again. We have hard hitting safeties, big time linebackers and an aggressive defensive line that want to attack. The old, slow defense of the past for New England is gone. We need to physically beat the Colts to win this game. If we physically beat them, they have NO shot at all to win this. They have Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark who are tremendous threats, but cover them well and smack them and the other guys on every play.

SHUT DOWN THE RUN

The Colts have been terrible running the ball in the past few games. They won the last 2 games by a total of 7 points against average teams (San Francisco, Houston). The Colts have only scored a total of 38 points against those two teams. The 49ers stopped Peyton Manning from throwing a touchdown pass in that game, but unfortunately gave them too much of an edge on the run. The Patriots seemingly had a hard time stopping the run in their losses to the Colts this decade. Shut down the run and take away some options for the Colts offense.

BLOCK THE D-ENDS

Just because the Colts secondary is banged up, don’t think their entire defense is. The Colts still have great defensive ends in Dwight Freeney (BLOOMFIELD!) and Robert Mathis. Both these guys are crazy, speed pass rushers that can not only get to Brady, but force some sacks and fumbles. These guys have to be shut down or else they may be able to land a big play that could change a game like this.

This is going to be a hell of a game. The Patriots are arguably playing better football now, but they have been playing against weaker competition. The Colts have not played a team anywhere near as talented as New England this season. I always used to hate Peyton Manning, but after a decade of rivalry and non-stop winning from both franchises, I am enjoying my first year of folding over and respecting him for being and unbelievable QB. If the Patriots can stay focused and play the way they are capable of, I really believe they are the best team in the NFL this year. Go into Indy and get the job done. I am saying 34-27 Pats over Colts. LETS GO!

Week 6 Preview

Titans (0-5) @ Patriots (3-2)

This is the perfect opportunity to get back on track for New England. The Tennessee Titans have been a shocking story after finishing 13-3 last year with the best record in the NFL. Without going under many changes at all in the off season, they are suddenly 0-5 as one of the 4 winless teams in the NFL. They are not nearly as bad as the other winless teams (Tampa, KC, St. Louis). They have a good amount of talent, a pretty aggressive but mysterious defense, a great running game but not much at QB or WR. New England still needs to bring their A game in order to secure this victory because Tenn will be hungry for their first win, and anything can happen on any given Sunday.

Keys to the game:

BIG GAME FOR TOM BRADY

This is a HUGE game for Tom Brady here. From struggling in Denver, back to Gillette against a struggling defense, Brady has to get back on track this week. The Titan defense has been getting harassed big time all season with the 31st ranked pass defense in the NFL. This is a big game for Brady to improve his mechanics, rebuild some of the confidence he had before the injury, and to get back in sync with his receivers.

BIG PLAYS FROM DEFENSE

This could also be a break out game for the defense. With only 1 interception all season (the other by Randy Moss last week in Denver), this could be a week to make some big plays and force some turnovers on QB Kerry Collins. Last week against Indianapolis Collins threw some god awful passes that floated no where near receivers, and were suspect to get picked off more often than not. If the D can play tough and force some mistakes from Collins then that may give them some big play confidence for the rest of the season, something the NE defense has lacked since their dynasty years. And if the D can shut down this poor offense it may be a huge mending game for the unity and identity this young defense is still searching for.

SHUT DOWN THE RUN IMMEDIATELY

Despite the troubles Tennessee has been having all season they still have the running back with the third most rushing yards in the entire NFL: Chris Johnson. Johnson only has 19 less rushing yards than the NFL leader Cedric Benson of the Bengals. Johnson is young, being in his second season, and he is absolutely electric, explosive, and a tremendous threat on the ground. He is capable of winning the game for the Titans if the Patriots cannot stop him. After the success and big running plays the Broncos got off the Patriots last week, the Titans may try to do the same. Other than a few big runs last week the defense has been good against the run as they always have in the past, and they have only given up 1 rushing touchdown all season. This may also be a big rebuilding game for our boy Jerod Mayo in the middle to make some big stops and feel more comfortable after returning from his injury last week.

Ravens 21 @ Patriots, 27

6 Minutes from the best

You’ve gotta play all 60 minutes to win games in the NFL. The Patriots played great for about 54 minutes. They controlled the outcome of the game throughout, until after the 4^th and 1 stop, when they went 3 and out on the following drive giving the ball back to Baltimore leaving them to decide the game.

Let’s take a look at how New England followed my keys to the game:

Convert FG’s to TD’s – The Patriots were much more effective in the red zone today with 4 red zone chances, which went FG, TD, TD, TD.

The first field goal “drive” (3 plays, -2 yards) was depressing to see after recovering that fumble to begin the game. It also didn’t leave me feeling confident that we could drive the field on the Ravens D after driving it -2 yards to start.

The offense had a great drive after that though, going 76 yards for a 1 yard Brady rushing TD taking up 7:51 while running 14 plays. Another long drive resulting in a 12 yard Sammy Morris touchdown went for 63 yards in 6 plays. And perhaps the most important TD drive of the game was after the Brady fumble for a touchdown when they answered with a  4 minute, 6 play, 79 yard touchdown drive, building the lead back to 10.

The offense was very successful controlling the clock for the 2^nd straight week, holding the ball for nearly 10 more minutes than Baltimore (NE – 34:56, BAL – 25:04).

Wes Welker – Welker made 6 catches for 48 yards but made a big impact in the red zone and on 3^rd downs. Even if Welker doesn’t make the play he is always serving as a decoy as defenses need to make sure he is accounted for on every play. This frees up other players and other options. Moss can play the same role. Even though neither of the two had a particularly huge game (Moss: 3 catches, 50 yards, 1 TD) they freed up some other players like Watson and Aiken, and the backs out of the flat and over the middle. Faulk, Maroney, Morris and Taylor combined for 8 catches for 71 yards.

O-Line – The offensive line played another good game protecting Brady. Although he was sacked 3 times, he had a lot of time to throw, and to scramble for some yards if nothing was there. The offensive line also did a nice job opening the running lane for their backs. They ran the ball 30 times for 85 yards averaging 2.8 yards per carry, OR subtracting Maroney’s rushing numbers, they ran 23 times for 79 yards averaging 3.4 yards per carry and 2 touchdowns. Just like the Falcons game last week, each back made big plays in big situations. Sammy Morris had 11 touches on the day and 6 of the touches went for first downs. These backs are critical to the success of the Patriots offense, and the depth they have will really benefit later in the season.

Defense – The defense was full of energy in this one. Young players like Meriweather, McGowan, Butler and the additions of Bodden and Springs were making some unbelievably athletic plays all game. The Bodden interception, some big pass deflections by Butler, a forced fumble and recovery for the 4^th straight game, and this unit is starting to turn into a smarter, play making defense. The defensive line was extremely kinetic and impressive making big plays halting the running game at first, making the big stop on McGahee, and pressuring Flacco. The backers and DB’s blitzed Flacco all day, putting him under a lot of pressure and making him uncomfortable in the pocket even though he seemed to stay remarkably poised all game. Although I wouldn’t classify the Ravens offense as explosive, they have a very fundamentally sound group of receivers, a smart and accurate QB and a great running back in Ray Rice. So slowing down this offense was a big win for the NE defense. The defense allowed just 14 points to the Ravens who had put up 30 on every other team this year. Other than the first drive when Baltimore drove down the field and scored, they allowed only one other scoring drive that came later, in the 4^th quarter.

Most important thing to take in after this game – More and more improvement from the Pats. The Patriots played pretty well throughout most of the game, got a little lucky towards the end and were able to pull it out. I would say right now, that Baltimore is probably still better than NE. But the Patriots are able to beat the best team in the AFC, so you can add this win to the confidence boosting list for this young team. They still have a lot to work on, but the Patriots overall performance was much improved from last week, which was much improved from the week before, and the defense is getting noticeably better against more potent offenses. The offense is starting to click a little bit more each game. New guys are stepping up and making big plays on both sides of the ball. As the season goes on and the Patriots keep getting better, they have the chance to potentially be the best in the AFC again.

The Patriots will have a chance next weekend to beat yet another undefeated team, this time on the road in Denver. NE has played an undefeated opponent every game this year. Their opponents records coming into the game against the Patriots are a combined 10-0. (BUF 0-0, NYJ 1-0, ATL 2-0, BAL 3-0, DEN 4-0).

Week 4 Preview

Ravens (3-0) @ Patriots (2-1)

This is the game of the week right here. In 10 or 12 weeks when we’re discussing playoff scenarios, you’ll hear this game being referred to plenty of times. This could be a possible rematch in January. Baltimore is certainly the best looking team so far in 2009, mainly because their offense has shockingly put up at least 30 points in each game. The opponents they have faced have had weak defenses: Chiefs in week 1, San Diego in week 2 and Cleveland in week 3. Everyone knows about the defense the Ravens have. BUT, they did give up 24 points to the Chiefs. The Ravens currently have the top offense in the AFC in yardage (1,291) and points scored (103). But behind all the “What’s wrong with New England?” talk, the Patriots have the 3^rd highest yards per game total in the AFC at 395 YPG. They also have the 3^rd ranked defense, only allowing an average of 262 yards per game.

The last time these teams played was in Baltimore on Monday night in 2007. If you’re a real pats fan you remember this game like it was yesterday. The Pats scored on a phenomenal catch by Gaffney with 44 seconds left, and almost lost on a last second Hail Mary pass where Derrick Mason caught the ball and was tackled at the 6 inch line with no time left. They were a couple 4^th down conversions, or a bad Rex Ryan timeout, or a couple lucky calls away from not winning that game.

If the Patriots can execute they way they are capable of, they should win this one no problem.

KEYS TO THE GAME

CONVERT FIELD GOALS TO TOUCHDOWNS

Brady is just 3-10 passing in the red zone, while the offense is 2-10 scoring touchdowns in the red zone in 2009. If you want to beat any good team in this league, you have to get the ball in the end zone. They know they are not executing, so expect them to look a little sharper in the red zone this week.

WES WELKER

He is his own key because he is so important. There is a chance he may return this Sunday. If he does, it will not just be another option for Brady (especially on 3^rd down and in the red zone) but it will also free up some other receivers. If he does not, then our wide outs need to do a better job getting open all the time because as a unit they are the weak link in the offense. If the Ravens D can get by with putting their best guy on Moss, then they will blitze everyone at Brady and start focusing on the run since Galloway and Slater or whoever is out there can’t get open anyway. Hopefully they practiced on running sharper routes this week, because their receivers will play a major role in this game.

O-LINE – KEEP IT UP

The offensive line has been brilliant so far, and they need to be better against this Raven defense. The o-line has protected Brady, only allowing one sack so far this year, and they have been able to run the ball very effectively.  They must stay aggressive and be able to keep running the ball this week with the 3 back attack.

AGGRESSIVE DEFENSE

They will need to pressure Flacco. The Ravens have exactly 0 offensive threats. No running backs, no receivers, and a pretty good QB. The only way they have been able to put up points is because the opposing defenses have allowed them to, and they have been getting good field position from their defense. New England needs to continue to develop their young defense this week. Stop the run, pressure the QB.

NFL Lines For Week 4

10/4 - 10/5, 2009
PICKS IN BOLD

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog
10/4 1:00 ET	At Houston	-9	Oakland
10/4 1:00 ET	Tennessee	-3	At Jacksonville
10/4 1:00 ET	At New England	-2	Baltimore
10/4 1:00 ET	Cincinnati	-5.5	At Cleveland
10/4 1:00 ET	NY Giants	-8.5	At Kansas City
10/4 1:00 ET	At Chicago	-10.5	Detroit
10/4 1:00 ET	At Washington	-7	Tampa Bay
10/4 1:00 ET	At Indianapolis	-9	Seattle
10/4 4:05 ET	At New Orleans	-7	NY Jets
10/4 4:05 ET	Buffalo	-2	At Miami
10/4 4:15 ET	At San Francisco	-9.5	St. Louis
10/4 4:15 ET	Dallas	-3	At Denver
10/4 8:20 ET	At Pittsburgh	-6.5	San Diego

Monday Night Football Line

10/5 8:35 ET

At Minnesota

-3.5

Green Bay

Bye Weeks: Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, Philadelphia

The Power Game is Back in New England

Last week the story was, “haven’t seen the Patriots play like that in a long time.” Their poor and unmotivated performance in New York was extremely uncharacteristic of the New England Patriots. This week the story remains, “haven’t seen the Patriots play like that in a long time.” What a difference one week can make. As you figured, the Patriots would come out this week much sharper than last week from both sides of the ball. The play in this game that we have not seen in a long time from the Patriots is great success on the ground, and also a young, energetic defense taking another step towards an elite defense like the ones in the early 2000s.

Brady looked respectable, missing some throws but converting on some big ones. He missed a few open guys including Moss on a bomb downfield, and a few mid-range passes. Brady will be able to connect on those passes soon enough. He will continue to get better as the season goes on, hopefully developing back into his old self entirely by mid to late season. I say mid to late season on the contrary to NBC NFL analyst and former Patriot Rodney Harrison who, based on his own injury experiences, thinks it will take at least a full season for 100% production from Tom. I think it will be quicker thanks to the success they are having running the ball. A good running game will help Brady become comfortable quicker since he will not have as much pressure on himself if they can move the chains on the ground.

Fred Taylor was running like a beast all game. He seems to be exactly what we wished Maroney would be like. Taylor is a natural football player with a passion and feel for the game. He ran hard all game eating up consistent chunks of yardage which is better than having a guy who is inconsistent that can break off an occasional big play like Maroney. Morris would fill in once in a while and make a big play. The big guys up front were pushing around the Falcon line, and doing an excellent job protecting Brady. Outstanding job today by the offensive line, and by the backs Taylor, Morris and Faulk.

The defense looked a little shaky in the opening drive when Atlanta drove down the field 72 yards and then kicked a field goal. The most critical point in the game was holding them to 3 instead of 7 on that opening drive. After the poor performance last week in New York, the last thing you want to do is go down 7 immediately at home the following week. That would be the only long drive of the game allowed by the New England defense. Later they gave up a 59 yard TD drive and the buckled down after that.  Atlanta’s drive sequence went fumble, end of half, punt, punt, punt, punt. The defensive line pressured Ryan, and did a good enough job shutting down the run game because for some reason ATL totally abandoned it in the first half. The D has not given up more than 20 points yet this season, and recovered another fumble today, which has been 1 recovery in each game so far.

Hopefully the Wilfork injury isn’t too serious and he will be back soon. We may never know with the way the Patriots management covers injuries, but look for the defense to continue to improve each week of this season as they become more comfortable and trusting in each other as a defensive unit. Trust is very important within a defense and it takes a while to establish that connection. It will also take a little while for Brady to get his touch back, but we saw hints of that today when he erupted on the sidelines and in the locker room leading to a great second half by everyone. Be patient with this team, when they start to click on all cylinders – look out.