Week 10 Preview

Patriots (6-2) @ Colts (8-0)

AND HERE…WE…GO…! Biggest game of the NFL season. Battle between two perennial heavy weight power house teams, the two best teams of the decade. This rivalry has been absolutely epic in every way, probably the most intense rivalry of the decade. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are the two best QBs of the decade, leading the two winningest franchises of the decade. Both teams are the only NFL teams that have a .700 win percentage this decade. Brady and Manning have won the last two NFL MVP awards, and they combined for 4 super bowl championships in the decade. The best part about Brady and Manning is the poise, and class these guys present and the respect they have for each other. This rivalry has some crazy history, and this game is on Sunday night. IT DOESN’T GET BETTER THAN THIS. I couldn’t watch ESPN for more than 2 minutes at any point this week without seeing some sort of Pats Colts coverage, Brady/Manning interviews, ect. It is going to be an electric atmosphere in Indianapolis; I wouldn’t miss this game for anything.

The Pats and Colts have met 11 times (including playoffs) since the Tom Brady era began midway through the year in 2001. All 11 of these games were great and intense games. 3 of the 4 times these teams combined to win the super bowl, they had to go through the other team to get there. The Patriots always seemed to have the Colts number, but the Colts have had the edge in the rivalry recently. The first game on this list was Tom Brady’s first game as a full time starter. Here is a list of the meetings since ’01: (Playoff meetings are marked with an asterisk)

New England leads 7-4
Nov 2, 2008	NWE 15, IND 18
Nov 4, 2007	NWE 24, IND 20
Jan 21, 2007	NWE 34, IND 38*
Nov 5, 2006	NWE 20, @IND 27
Nov 7, 2005	NWE 21, @IND 40
Jan 16, 2005	NWE 20, @IND 3*
Sep 9, 2004	NWE 27, @IND 24
Jan 18, 2004	NWE 24, @IND 14*
Nov 30, 2003	NWE 38, IND 34
Oct 21, 2001	NWE 38, IND 17
Sep 30, 2001	NWE 44, @IND 13

Brady and Manning are two of the sharpest, smartest and most talented QBs of all time. However not just the QBs will dictate the outcome of the game. Here are the keys to the game for a Pats victory.

KEYS TO THE GAME

EXPOSE COLTS SECONDARY

The Colts secondary is banged up. Safety Bob Sanders, who is always injured, is injured again and will not play for the rest of the season. They are missing two cornerbacks also. The Colts will have to deal with it, since the Patriots secondary always had more injuries than that and they still got by. The Patriots need to spread the field AND throw some short passes to the Slot Machine, as well as screens. They need to attack that inexperienced secondary. Even though the Colts DB’s are inexperienced though, they are NOT by any means poor defenders. The Patriots are second in the NFL in points allowed per game, but the Colts are ranked first.

STICK ‘EM!

Bring back the old times. We have the defensive personnel to hit people in the mouth again. We have hard hitting safeties, big time linebackers and an aggressive defensive line that want to attack. The old, slow defense of the past for New England is gone. We need to physically beat the Colts to win this game. If we physically beat them, they have NO shot at all to win this. They have Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark who are tremendous threats, but cover them well and smack them and the other guys on every play.

SHUT DOWN THE RUN

The Colts have been terrible running the ball in the past few games. They won the last 2 games by a total of 7 points against average teams (San Francisco, Houston). The Colts have only scored a total of 38 points against those two teams. The 49ers stopped Peyton Manning from throwing a touchdown pass in that game, but unfortunately gave them too much of an edge on the run. The Patriots seemingly had a hard time stopping the run in their losses to the Colts this decade. Shut down the run and take away some options for the Colts offense.

BLOCK THE D-ENDS

Just because the Colts secondary is banged up, don’t think their entire defense is. The Colts still have great defensive ends in Dwight Freeney (BLOOMFIELD!) and Robert Mathis. Both these guys are crazy, speed pass rushers that can not only get to Brady, but force some sacks and fumbles. These guys have to be shut down or else they may be able to land a big play that could change a game like this.

This is going to be a hell of a game. The Patriots are arguably playing better football now, but they have been playing against weaker competition. The Colts have not played a team anywhere near as talented as New England this season. I always used to hate Peyton Manning, but after a decade of rivalry and non-stop winning from both franchises, I am enjoying my first year of folding over and respecting him for being and unbelievable QB. If the Patriots can stay focused and play the way they are capable of, I really believe they are the best team in the NFL this year. Go into Indy and get the job done. I am saying 34-27 Pats over Colts. LETS GO!

NFL Lines For Week 10

11/15 - 11/16, 2009
PICKS IN BOLD

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog
11/15 1:00 ET	At NY Jets	-7	Jacksonville
11/15 1:00 ET	Denver	-3.5	At Washington
11/15 1:00 ET	At Pittsburgh	-7	Cincinnati
11/15 1:00 ET	At Tennessee	-7	Buffalo
11/15 1:00 ET	At Minnesota	-17	Detroit
11/15 1:00 ET	New Orleans	-14	At St. Louis
11/15 1:00 ET	Atlanta	-1.5	At Carolina
11/15 1:00 ET	At Miami	-10	Tampa Bay
11/15 4:05 ET	At Oakland	-2	Kansas City
11/15 4:15 ET	At Arizona	-8.5	Seattle
11/15 4:15 ET	At San Diego	-1	Philadelphia
11/15 4:15 ET	Dallas	-3	At Green Bay
11/15 8:20 ET	At Indianapolis	-3	New England

Monday Night Football Line

11/16 8:35 ET

Baltimore

-11

At Cleveland

Bye Weeks: Houston, NY Giants
Last Week: 6-7

Brady, Moss outlast Dolphins in Gillette

Dolphins, 17 @ Patriots, 27

Good game today by both teams. The Dolphins took a little longer than I had expected to get going on the Wildcat but it was effective on that first drive, and after that the Pats did a pretty good job containing it. Moss erupted with a huge game, and Brady looked very poised and probably the most comfortable I have seen him all season. He finished 25/37 for 332, 1 TD and 1 int. He passed Drew Bledsoe for most 300 yard games in New England franchise history.

Moss finished with 6 catches for 147 yards and that awesome 71 yard TD catch where he stiff armed Vontae Davis and took it the rest of the way. This was following the ridiculous highlight 1 handed catch on the fade down the sidelines, setting up Maroney for the 1 yard touchdown run in the first quarter. Maroney also ran hard, breaking some big runs, which is an excellent sign for the Pats. I also noticed that the defense looked very good again. The corners, Butler, Springs, and Bodden looked really good in coverage. The safeties Meriweather, and rookie Pat Chung delivered some awesome hits all game. Chung took down Henne for a big sack in one of the best blitzes I have seen all season, and he also lit up Henne again real bad, but got flagged and will probably see a fine for leading with his helmet.

Keys to the game:

STOP THE WILDCAT

Other than those two long touchdown drives Miami had they weren’t able to get much going. The front 7 did a nice job stopping the run. Pat White was actually more effective than I thought he would be because he is really quick and tough to tackle. It is a good thing for opponents that he sucks at passing. Miami finished with just 201 yards passing, a lot of which game on that meaningless last drive. Goes to show you the Pats secondary has improved a lot. Also goes to show you that the Dolphins don’t have many good receivers to work with in addition to their running game.

SHUT UP PORTER

Porter should keep his mouth shut from now on. First of all, don’t give the Patriots any bulletin board material, and secondly, if you can’t even make a tackle, you might want to keep your mouth shut. As I said before, Porter can only rush the passer. Vollmer and the rest of the oline kept him away from Brady all game. The only stat Porter put up was 1 QB hit. 0 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 forced fumbles, 0 pass deflections.

PLAY EVERY PLAY

I thought New England did a great job today on special teams kicking it away from Ginn. Actually Gostkowski was awesome booting the ball out of the ball of the end zone on most of the kickoffs. The offense was very efficient, not allowing a punt return for the Dolphins. Ginn is much more of a weapon on special teams and they executed well taking him out of the game.

NFL Lines For Week 9

11/8 - 11/9, 2009
PICKS IN BOLD

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog
11/8 1:00 ET	At Jacksonville	-6.5	Kansas City
11/8 1:00 ET	Baltimore	-3	At Cincinnati
11/8 1:00 ET	At Indianapolis	-9	Houston
11/8 1:00 ET	At Atlanta	-10	Washington
11/8 1:00 ET	Green Bay	-9.5	At Tampa Bay
11/8 1:00 ET	At Chicago	-3	Arizona
11/8 1:00 ET	At New England	-10.5	Miami
11/8 4:05 ET	At New Orleans	-13	Carolina
11/8 4:05 ET	At Seattle	-10	Detroit
11/8 4:15 ET	At San Francisco	-4	Tennessee
11/8 4:15 ET	At NY Giants	-5	San Diego
11/8 8:20 ET	At Philadelphia	-3	Dallas

Monday Night Football Line

11/9 8:35 ET

Pittsburgh

-3

At Denver

Bye Weeks: Buffalo, Cleveland, Minnesota, NY. Jets, Oakland, St. Louis

Week 7: 7-6

Week 9 Preview

Dolphins (3-4) @ Patriots (5-2)

The Patriots are returning back to the NFL after beating up two terrible teams followed by a bye week. The Dolphins are a very tough all around team. They have a very solid defense, good pass rush, very dangerous special teams with Ted Ginn Jr. returning kicks, good young QB in Chad Henne and of course, the Wildcat formation led by RB’s Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. The last meeting between these two was a very exciting shootout in Miami that the Patriots won 48-28. That was the first of the two games last year, the first one was in Foxboro where the Dolphins debuted the Wildcat formation and the Patriots were totally unprepared. Ronnie Brown was involved in 5 touchdowns that game, whether it was rushing, throwing or catching touchdowns. New England is going to need to stop that effectively in order to win this game. Don’t let the Dolphins 3-4 record fool you, this team is real tough and real talented and always plays the Patriots really hard.

Keys to the game:

STOP THE WILDCAT

This is the only real key to winning this game. Remember Miami is the inventor of the Wildcat formation. All the other teams that have their variations aren’t nearly as good as the Dolphins (Univ. of Texas and the Wildhorn, Denver Broncos and the Wild Horses, and the Eagles with the Michael Vick one. They all suck except for Miami’s). The Dolphins can’t really stretch the field too well. Although Henne is a better downfield passer than Pennington, the Dolphins are pretty thin at WR with Bess, Camarillo, and Ginn who has stone hands. If they can keep the run game with Brown and Williams in check, it will help neutralize the options of the Wildcat. They will also try some trick plays out of this formation so every defensive player must stick to his assignment and stay disciplined.

SHUT UP PORTER

This is a personal key to the game for me. I hate Joey Porter. He is one of the biggest pieces of sh*t in football. He talks sh*t about the Patriots, Brady, Belichick, and he never shuts up. All Porter can do is pass rush and get after the QB. Sebastian Vollmer (accidently mentioned as Billy Vollmer in previous articles, sorry Seb) will be given the duty of putting Porter on his ass and keeping him away from Brady. I wouldn’t worry about Porter defending WRs or doing anything other than rushing the passer. But he is very good at it. Just keep Porter away from Brady, I don’t wanna see him near Brady at any given point in the game.

PLAY EVERY PLAY

Miami can win games without doing anything on offense. As mentioned above, they have a great defense and special teams. Ginn Jr. returned kicks of 100, and 101 yards for TD’s as the Dolphins scored 30 on the Jets and won 30-25. But the Jets outgained the Dolphins 378 to 104 in total yards! The Patriots have to play hard every play in this one because the Dolphins can score from anywhere at any time.
This should be a good game. If the Patriots can stay disciplined on defense the Dolphins probably won’t be able to get the ball into the endzone. New England’s offense is too powerful to be contained by Miami so if they can keep moving the ball they should be able to win this game. But don’t expect anything to come easy.

Week 7 Preview

Patriots (4-2) @ Buccaneers (0-6)

I bid thee good day from London! I am not personally in London, but for those of you who are unaware, or have been sleeping the past couple weeks, the Patriots are taking on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in London! This is the second year of that tradition, where the NFL tries to outsource to other countries in the world. I am ok with the one game a year thing, I think it adds some outside interest, similar to the NHL playing a game outside on a baseball field (Bruins @ Fenway New Years day!). But if the NFL is seriously considering putting a team out there…well that’s a different story.
This will be a perfect means for the Londoner’s to witness a replay of last weekend’s romping of the Titans, only this time its Tampa, and instead of snow covering the field there will probably be some rain and a thick layer of smog. I don’t know how the ball will travel in such smog, so maybe the running game may be more practical. This game counts as a normal road game for the Patriots and a home game for the hapless, meacock Buccaneers. If you thought the Titans were bad last week, wait until you see this team. They have a poor defense, virtually no weapons on offense, and have a terrible draft every year. I don’t see any future potential in this team. Hopefully our guys will be able to potch these guys around, go up early and give our starters an early and lengthy rest over the next fortnight (Week 8 = BYE).

Keys to the game:

BUILD CONFIDENCE

Let’s see if the defense can remain rather deft and force turnovers on this young offense. They capitulated 5 total turnovers last weekend (3 fumbles, 2 picks). Maybe this week someone can take one of those picks to the house or return a fumble all the way. These types of things can build major confidence for better opponents later in the season. Another shutout would be a huge plus towards becoming the powerful defensive force that I believe they are capable of becoming. I would rather see another 0 on the scoreboard over another 59 points. Both would be desirable.

STAY IN SYNC

Keep running the plays effectively just like last week. Look for Brady to remain continuate working on his mechanics, and click with Welker and Moss on some big plays. There may even be a chance for some patchery like last week’s flea flicker, so look for some aggressive play clepes.

DISCIPLINE

Do not fall asleep early. This is still a pro football team and if Tampa shows up early and keeps it close, they could have an outside shot of pulling off quite a large upset. Realistically though, they have no shot. The Pats are too well coached to lose a game like this, sorry Tampa.

UNKNOWN

Other than that, I don’t know anything about the Buccaneers. Their QB is a kid named Josh Johnson, and they have a 32 year old rookie head coach in Raheem Morris. They also have a tackling machine linebacker in Barrett Ruud. That’s about it. I don’t even think the coaches and fans know much more than that. They are 0-6, so hopefully New England will rid of them early. Some people think the Patriots really will score 100 this week, but we will see. Here are some team stat comparisons between the Pats and Bucs:

		Patriots		Buccaneers
	NFL Rank	Yards/Points	NFL Rank	Yards/Points
Offense
Yards gained/game	4th	404	28th	277
Rush yards/game	13th	116	21st	99
Pass yards/game	4th	288	22nd	178
Points scored/game	7th	27	28th	14
Defense
Yards allowed/game	6th	293	27th	370
Rush yards allowed/game	20th	112	31st	171
Pass yards allowed/game	6th	180	11th	198
Points allowed/game	3rd	15	29th	28

(Team stats from first 6 weeks of 2009, based on all 32 NFL teams)

The difference this week compared to last week is that maybe we will be able to work our running game a little bit more. Tampa has a terrible rush defense, and their strength is actually their pass defense. Perhaps we can get it going in the run game like we did with the pass game last week. All I know is that New England already has this one wrapped up. I also know that Raheem Morris and his good gentles may want to taketh down a couple bottles of mead or a few lagers in a local pub after this one.

Shakesperean Dictionary Reference:

Capitulated – make a combined force
Clepe – call
Continuate – uninterrupted
Deft – skillful with the use of hands or body
Fortnight – two week period
Meacock – cowardly
Mead – an alcoholic beverage made from honey
Means – opportunity
Patchery - trickery
Potch – to push violently
Rid – destroy

Pats Freeze And Dismantle Tennessee In Gillette

Titans, 0 @ Patriots, 59

Since my preview was not able to be posted on time, I apologize and posted it anyway and made up for the untimeliness with a special bonus plethora of statistics from this game.

I thought there was tons of action in the first half of the Saints/Giants game, and I thought the Titans got beaten down by the Colts last week. The Titans looked and played like the last thing they expected was for it to snow. They wanted nothing to do with this game or the Patriots from the get go. They looked like the Cardinals last season when they came into snowy New England in week 16 last year and got leveled 47-7. I also had some flashbacks to 2007 in week 7 when Brady had 5 first half TD passes in Miami and the Patriots had 42 first half points. This game was crazy, so below you will see a slew of crazy, unorganized statistics from this game. Here we go.

A few things struck me as unusual almost immediately with this game.

1. Its snowing. I had no idea that the forecast for the game was snow. I didn’t even expect it to be raining to be honest. I didn’t even know the game was starting at 4:15 PM.
   
2. The uniforms. The Patriots are wearing their uniforms they have historically sucked in again, after sucking twice while wearing them this season. And the Oilers, another AFL team, not nearly as harsh on the eyes as the Denver ones last week. At least this game proved my “The Patriots suck in their old uniforms” theory wrong.
   
3. Laurence Maroney. Maroney broke a big 45 yard touchdown run in the first quarter. I haven’t seen Maroney bang out a run like that in years. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since the super bowl, and the Patriots haven’t had a run longer than 20 yards all season. He looked great today, hitting holes hard and rushing for over 100 yards as of just the 3rd quarter. I had a feeling we were in for a wild one when Maroney broke that run in the beginning.
   

Shortly after the Maroney run, Brady to Welker for 48 yards was the longest pass by Brady since the divisional playoff against the Jaguars. Brandon Meriweather stripped Lendale White of the ball, and a muffed snapped recovered by the Patriots. NE has recovered a fumble in every single game so far this season.
New England hasn’t had a 40+ yard play all season. They had 3 in the first half, 2 for touchdowns. They also had 3 TDs in a 3 minute span.

One of these 40 yard plays was the unbelievable 40 yard flea flicker touchdown to Moss. What a great pass by Brady and great play execution on such an unusual play. Unfortunately there is entirely too much about this game to discuss how awesome this play was. So watch the highlights.

Here is the first half QB comparison:

Kerry Collins – 1/10, 15 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT
Tom Brady – 24/28, 345 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT

2nd Quarter:

Brady throws for 5 touchdowns in the second quarter, being the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for 5 TDs in a single quarter.
2 TDs in a 50 second span. 2 fumbles on 2 straight snaps for the Titans. 3 take aways in 5 plays after the interception by Butler.

Some random stats and records:

45-0 after the first half. Patriots record.
6 20+ yard plays in first half.
59 Point total – Franchise Record
Margin of victory – Franchise Record
Most points allowed by the Titans
5 Turnovers forced
619 yards - Most yards in a game in franchise history
First downs: 32
First downs allowed: 9
Time of Possession: NE – 39:00, Tenn – 21:00
Titans QB numbers – 2/14, -7 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT

Finally, let’s take a quick look at my keys to the game:

BIG GAME FOR TOM BRADY

Tom Brady finished after 1 half and one drive with these numbers:
Tom Brady - 29/34, 380 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT
Phil Simms said it himself, “As a quarterback the night before a game you don’t even dream about those types of numbers.”

All in all an incredible rebuilding game for Tom Brady. He clicked with all of his receivers, he was protected well. He hooked up with Wes Welker 10 times and Moss 8 times for 5 touchdowns. Brady threw more touchdown passes (6) than incomplete passes (5). What a day.

BIG PLAYS FROM THE DEFENSE

The Patriots attacked an overwhelmed and intimidated looking offense. They forced and recovered 3 fumbles, and 2 huge interceptions both by rookies. One by safety Pat Chung, and the other from CB Darius Butler. I knew this game would be a great opportunity for the defense to build their confidence, and they went out there and mercilessly took that opportunity today. The rookies got a tremendous confidence boost as did the unit as a whole. Unbelievable effort by this defense today.

The pass defense held the Titans to -7 total passing yards on just 2 completions. That would be an average of -3.5 yards per completion, in contrast with the Patriots who had 426 yards passing, which was 433 more passing yards than the Titans. (You might want to read that paragraph again. Wow.)

SHUT DOWN THE RUN IMMEDIATELY

This was a nonfactor key. The New England offense exploded big time in this game, eliminating the run game from the Tennessee playbooks immediately.

Other side notes:

What a debut for LT Billy Vollmer! Replacing Matt Light was easy today for Vollmer. He made some excellent blocks on some huge plays. The entire offensive line had a field day out there today beating the Titan defensive line ruthlessly play after play.

Brandon Meriweather. This guy FLIES on the field laying it down on players. He is everywhere, making big plays, forcing fumbles. He looks like a younger Rodney Harrison. The entire secondary literally locked down the Titan receivers. They had no shot.

Julian Edelman. Edelman was fantastic today, breaking tackles all over the field. The Patriot receivers ate the Titan secondary alive all game.

This was probably the most lopsided game I have ever seen. The Patriots played awesome, and the Titans were pathetic. They were flat, didn’t show any interest and simply didn’t show up and they got physically, mentally, and emotionally dismantled. If the Patriots left their starters in all game they seriously might have had a shot of winning 100-0. Look at the statistics, the numbers, the scoring summaries, the records set. Let it sink in and realize how incredible this performance really was. I hope the Titans can regroup for their sakes. I would hate to be on that practice field next week.

Week 6 Preview

Titans (0-5) @ Patriots (3-2)

This is the perfect opportunity to get back on track for New England. The Tennessee Titans have been a shocking story after finishing 13-3 last year with the best record in the NFL. Without going under many changes at all in the off season, they are suddenly 0-5 as one of the 4 winless teams in the NFL. They are not nearly as bad as the other winless teams (Tampa, KC, St. Louis). They have a good amount of talent, a pretty aggressive but mysterious defense, a great running game but not much at QB or WR. New England still needs to bring their A game in order to secure this victory because Tenn will be hungry for their first win, and anything can happen on any given Sunday.

Keys to the game:

BIG GAME FOR TOM BRADY

This is a HUGE game for Tom Brady here. From struggling in Denver, back to Gillette against a struggling defense, Brady has to get back on track this week. The Titan defense has been getting harassed big time all season with the 31st ranked pass defense in the NFL. This is a big game for Brady to improve his mechanics, rebuild some of the confidence he had before the injury, and to get back in sync with his receivers.

BIG PLAYS FROM DEFENSE

This could also be a break out game for the defense. With only 1 interception all season (the other by Randy Moss last week in Denver), this could be a week to make some big plays and force some turnovers on QB Kerry Collins. Last week against Indianapolis Collins threw some god awful passes that floated no where near receivers, and were suspect to get picked off more often than not. If the D can play tough and force some mistakes from Collins then that may give them some big play confidence for the rest of the season, something the NE defense has lacked since their dynasty years. And if the D can shut down this poor offense it may be a huge mending game for the unity and identity this young defense is still searching for.

SHUT DOWN THE RUN IMMEDIATELY

Despite the troubles Tennessee has been having all season they still have the running back with the third most rushing yards in the entire NFL: Chris Johnson. Johnson only has 19 less rushing yards than the NFL leader Cedric Benson of the Bengals. Johnson is young, being in his second season, and he is absolutely electric, explosive, and a tremendous threat on the ground. He is capable of winning the game for the Titans if the Patriots cannot stop him. After the success and big running plays the Broncos got off the Patriots last week, the Titans may try to do the same. Other than a few big runs last week the defense has been good against the run as they always have in the past, and they have only given up 1 rushing touchdown all season. This may also be a big rebuilding game for our boy Jerod Mayo in the middle to make some big stops and feel more comfortable after returning from his injury last week.

NFL Lines For Week 6

10/18 - 10/19, 2009
PICKS IN BOLD

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog
10/18 1:00 ET	At Washington	-6.5	Kansas City
10/18 1:00 ET	At Cincinnati	-5.5	Houston
10/18 1:00 ET	At Pittsburgh	-14	Cleveland
10/18 1:00 ET	At Minnesota	-3	Baltimore
10/18 1:00 ET	At Jacksonville	-9.5	St. Louis
10/18 1:00 ET	At New Orleans	-3	NY Giants
10/18 1:00 ET	Carolina	-3	At Tampa Bay
10/18 1:00 ET	At Green Bay	-13.5	Detroit
10/18 4:05 ET	Philadelphia	-14	At Oakland
10/18 4:05 ET	At Seattle	-3	Arizona
10/18 4:15 ET	At NY Jets	-9.5	Buffalo
10/18 4:15 ET	At New England	-9.5	Tennessee
10/18 8:20 ET	At Atlanta	-3	Chicago

Monday Night Football Line

10/19 8:35 ET

At San Diego

-3.5

Denver

Week 5 (W-L): 6-8
Bye Weeks: Dallas, Indianapolis, Miami, San Francisco

Second Half Meltdown in the Mile High City

Patriots, 17 @ Broncos, 20 (OT)

Denver moves to 5-0 after outscoring New England 13-0 after the first half. Did Denver win this game, or did New England lose it? Well, maybe a little of both. Denver played an incredible TEAM game especially in the second half where they completely and utterly steam rolled the deflated Patriots. Denver’s 3 receivers can be totally lethal, Orton is an excellent game manager, and the team is very well coached and disciplined. They dispersed the ball evenly, and with great play calling, it was tough to guess what play they would run, or who was getting the ball. The Patriots made absolutely no second half adjustments AGAIN. This coaching staff either doesn’t make second half adjustments, or makes terrible ones. This was evident in the Super Bowl, this was evident against the Jets in week two and it was the reason why the Patriots blew this game in the second half. Here’s a couple mind blowing second half stats from the Patriots:

• 120 yards gained – New England had 5 second half drives, 120 yards. Average: 24 yards per drive.
• 193 yards allowed – Orton and the big 3 receivers lit it up in the second half.
• 11:36 – This number is the amount of time the Patriots had the ball in a 30 minute half.
• 0 points – You’re not winning a game against any team with no points in the second half.

Now here are some stats from the entire game:

• 26 more penalty yards - Stupid penalties are extremely uncharacteristic of the Patriots who are usually one of the least penalized teams in football. Dumb penalties by Mankins, and Meriweather came at bad times.
• Top 4 leading tacklers were in secondary - Leading non-secondary tackler was Mayo with 6. That means that the linebackers did a poor job filling holes on runs, which usually went for big yards, and missed too many tackles.
• 73% completion percentage - Orton got too comfortable and completed too many passes.
• Outgained by 119 yards.
• 4.1 yards allowed per run.

Let’s take a look at my keys to the game:

TIME OF POSSESSION

Denver controlled the ball for 36:29. New England for 28:22. The Patriots have controlled the clock more than their opponent in every single game this season until this one. In their 3 wins, they controlled the ball for at least 8 minutes more than their opponent. The only game where TOP was close was in week 2 at New York when NE only had the ball for 20 more seconds than the Jets. The result: 7 point loss. It is crucially important to control the ball and keep that defense fresh on the sidelines.

KEEP RUNNING THE FOOTBALL

The Patriots had some success running the ball. But they weren’t able to run it well enough and they couldn’t pass so that almost made the running game irrelevant.

PRESSURE ORTON

It seemed like Orton completed every single pass. He was too comfortable, made big plays, and the defense failed to pressure him. The defense was completely gassed in the second half and couldn’t apply pressure when they needed it most.

PROTECT BRADY

Brady was protected very well all game. He missed WAY too many throws. Wide open Moss in the end zone in the first quarter, wide open Moss again on 3rd down, and WIDE OPEN Wes Welker who was running down field with no one near him TWICE. The pass protection was surprisingly good. Brady had a terrible day passing the ball only going 19/33 with 215 yards and a devastating turnover. If Brady looked sharper and connected on some of these passes the Patriots would have easily won this game.
I don’t want to hear any of the what’s wrong with Tom questions this week. It was either A. a bad game, B. discomfort in Denver, where he has historically played bad during his entire career, or C. mechanical issues that he needs to keep working on because he missed an entire season last season. Like I said before, he won’t be back to old Tom Brady until the second half of the season at the earliest. Imagine if you were taken out of your job for 1  year. Then you get tossed back into your old routine. Suddenly you have to start waking up early again and going into work with new coworkers and new bosses. You wouldn’t be as crisp either. The important thing here though, the Patriots could have still won this game even with Brady playing so poorly.

I envisioned the entire play out of this game sometime in the third quarter, when the Patriots had to punt twice, and both times Denver gave the ball back to us on penalties. We took advantage of this how? By punting again. This was without a doubt the major turning point of the game. If you can’t turn that opportunity into something positive, you will not win the game. There was a dramatic shift in confidence for Denver that you could feel, and you could also feel some of the deflation in the Patriots. NE missed too many opportunities and made too many mistakes to win this game. You need to be better against a team like Denver, in Denver. Even though they could have won this, I look at this game as a major step backward for New England. They looked so poor fundamentally and executing the game plan, an area where they have been better and better each week. I said in my preview not to sleep on this team because they are better than you think. Maybe it was just a bad game against a good team that made us look bad. But it is important to forget about this, move on and continue working to get better.

Week 5 Preview

Patriots (3-1) @ Broncos (4-0)

Well here we are. Another game against another undefeated opponent for the 5th time this season in 5 weeks. If you’re from CT like me, don’t let any of your New York/bandwagon/anti-Patriot friends use the strength of schedule excuse for success against our Pats. New England’s opponent record coming into the game this year (including week 5) is a combined 10-0 compared to the undefeated Giants whose is 3-7. Bronco head coach Josh McDaniels is making his debut against his former team, and it will be interesting to see how he carries out his game plan. Huge win last week, but this could actually turn into a bigger win so please don’t sleep on the Broncos, they are better than you think. I will explain.

KEYS TO THE GAME

TIME OF POSSESSION

The Patriots have been dominating TOP so far this year, which have actually played major contributions to their wins. Converting third down conversions and running the football will help achieve a higher TOP as they have been doing in past weeks. The Bronco offense has turned the ball over less than any other team in the NFL, only 3 times all season (all have been fumbles). So be smart with the football, keep running and keep moving the chains, and leave our defense on the sideline. Denver is going to play the same game as us, trying to control the clock and run the ball with their number two rushing game in the AFC, averaging 148 rushing yards per game with the combination of rookie Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter. Not a surprise since the man in charge of their offense used to be the man in charge of our offense.

KEEP RUNNING THE FOOTBALL

The Bronco defense is a major part of their success this season. They are 1st in the AFC for yards allowed per game only giving up 239 YPG. Teams have been abandoning the running game against them since their defense only allows 77 rushing yards per game, BUT they also allow 3.2 yards per carry. It is important to keep pounding the football and not get discouraged if it isn’t working right away. They need some yards on the ground. This will also help neutralize the pass rush from Denver, and keep them guessing between run and pass.

PRESSURE KYLE ORTON

The Cutler trade is working out for the Broncos now. Orton has been doing an excellent job managing the game and protecting the football. Orton has not thrown an interception all season. The defensive line and combo blitzes that were successful last week need to get better this week so Orton starts making some mistakes. But do not over pursue the quarterback because they will just run the football right by our pass rush. The Broncos will balance pass and run just like the Patriots. This offense doesn’t have many weapons aside from WR Brandon Marshall. Pressure the QB and don’t let Marshall get the ball, and shut down the run.

PROTECT BRADY

The Broncos have a great pass rush, leading the AFC in sacks with 15 on the season. Defensive end/outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil is tied for the AFC lead with 8 sacks this year. These guys are going to want to come after Brady and take the passing attack out of the Patriots offense. The o-line has done well protecting him so far, and they need to continue doing so. Never again do I want to see another 07 super bowl situation when another d-line is terrorizing our franchise while simultaneously establishing themselves in the nightmares of every New England civilian. This line may not be the same, but it may be the first naturally aggressive defense the Patriots have seen this season. So let’s see how they protect Tom. Play calling here is important; another good mix of run and pass should help the Patriots prevail over the Bronco pass rush.

That is why they will be so tough tomorrow because…THEY ARE THE SAME AS US! Running, time of possession, good defense, don’t turn it over, good offensive line. They have the same type of game plan as we do this year. Hopefully Belichick remembered to take Josh McDaniels off his auto emailing list in the office because a lot of the offensive and defensive strategies by these teams are eerily similar. The team who executes better may be the winner of this one. But who plays the Patriots game better than the Patriots? New England is the better coached and more talented and disciplined team. I’m thinking it will be a tough first half for New England, but I think they should be able to gain some separation and win this one.

NFL Lines For Week 5

10/11 - 10/12, 2009
PICKS IN BOLD

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog
10/11 1:00 ET	Minnesota	-10	At St. Louis
10/11 1:00 ET	Dallas	-8	At Kansas City
10/11 1:00 ET	At Carolina	-3.5	Washington
10/11 1:00 ET	At Philadelphia	-15	Tampa Bay
10/11 1:00 ET	At NY Giants	-14.5	Oakland
10/11 1:00 ET	At Buffalo	-6	Cleveland
10/11 1:00 ET	At Baltimore	-8.5	Cincinnati
10/11 1:00 ET	Pittsburgh	-10.5	At Detroit
10/11 4:05 ET	At San Francisco	-2.5	Atlanta
10/11 4:15 ET	New England	-3	At Denver
10/11 4:15 ET	At Arizona	-5.5	Houston
10/11 4:15 ET	At Seattle	Even	Jacksonville
10/11 8:20 ET	Indianapolis	-3.5	At Tennessee

Monday Night Football Line

10/12 8:35 ET

NY Jets

-1.5

At Miami

36.5

 
Bye Weeks: Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego

Last Week: 6-8

Ravens 21 @ Patriots, 27

6 Minutes from the best

You’ve gotta play all 60 minutes to win games in the NFL. The Patriots played great for about 54 minutes. They controlled the outcome of the game throughout, until after the 4^th and 1 stop, when they went 3 and out on the following drive giving the ball back to Baltimore leaving them to decide the game.

Let’s take a look at how New England followed my keys to the game:

Convert FG’s to TD’s – The Patriots were much more effective in the red zone today with 4 red zone chances, which went FG, TD, TD, TD.

The first field goal “drive” (3 plays, -2 yards) was depressing to see after recovering that fumble to begin the game. It also didn’t leave me feeling confident that we could drive the field on the Ravens D after driving it -2 yards to start.

The offense had a great drive after that though, going 76 yards for a 1 yard Brady rushing TD taking up 7:51 while running 14 plays. Another long drive resulting in a 12 yard Sammy Morris touchdown went for 63 yards in 6 plays. And perhaps the most important TD drive of the game was after the Brady fumble for a touchdown when they answered with a  4 minute, 6 play, 79 yard touchdown drive, building the lead back to 10.

The offense was very successful controlling the clock for the 2^nd straight week, holding the ball for nearly 10 more minutes than Baltimore (NE – 34:56, BAL – 25:04).

Wes Welker – Welker made 6 catches for 48 yards but made a big impact in the red zone and on 3^rd downs. Even if Welker doesn’t make the play he is always serving as a decoy as defenses need to make sure he is accounted for on every play. This frees up other players and other options. Moss can play the same role. Even though neither of the two had a particularly huge game (Moss: 3 catches, 50 yards, 1 TD) they freed up some other players like Watson and Aiken, and the backs out of the flat and over the middle. Faulk, Maroney, Morris and Taylor combined for 8 catches for 71 yards.

O-Line – The offensive line played another good game protecting Brady. Although he was sacked 3 times, he had a lot of time to throw, and to scramble for some yards if nothing was there. The offensive line also did a nice job opening the running lane for their backs. They ran the ball 30 times for 85 yards averaging 2.8 yards per carry, OR subtracting Maroney’s rushing numbers, they ran 23 times for 79 yards averaging 3.4 yards per carry and 2 touchdowns. Just like the Falcons game last week, each back made big plays in big situations. Sammy Morris had 11 touches on the day and 6 of the touches went for first downs. These backs are critical to the success of the Patriots offense, and the depth they have will really benefit later in the season.

Defense – The defense was full of energy in this one. Young players like Meriweather, McGowan, Butler and the additions of Bodden and Springs were making some unbelievably athletic plays all game. The Bodden interception, some big pass deflections by Butler, a forced fumble and recovery for the 4^th straight game, and this unit is starting to turn into a smarter, play making defense. The defensive line was extremely kinetic and impressive making big plays halting the running game at first, making the big stop on McGahee, and pressuring Flacco. The backers and DB’s blitzed Flacco all day, putting him under a lot of pressure and making him uncomfortable in the pocket even though he seemed to stay remarkably poised all game. Although I wouldn’t classify the Ravens offense as explosive, they have a very fundamentally sound group of receivers, a smart and accurate QB and a great running back in Ray Rice. So slowing down this offense was a big win for the NE defense. The defense allowed just 14 points to the Ravens who had put up 30 on every other team this year. Other than the first drive when Baltimore drove down the field and scored, they allowed only one other scoring drive that came later, in the 4^th quarter.

Most important thing to take in after this game – More and more improvement from the Pats. The Patriots played pretty well throughout most of the game, got a little lucky towards the end and were able to pull it out. I would say right now, that Baltimore is probably still better than NE. But the Patriots are able to beat the best team in the AFC, so you can add this win to the confidence boosting list for this young team. They still have a lot to work on, but the Patriots overall performance was much improved from last week, which was much improved from the week before, and the defense is getting noticeably better against more potent offenses. The offense is starting to click a little bit more each game. New guys are stepping up and making big plays on both sides of the ball. As the season goes on and the Patriots keep getting better, they have the chance to potentially be the best in the AFC again.

The Patriots will have a chance next weekend to beat yet another undefeated team, this time on the road in Denver. NE has played an undefeated opponent every game this year. Their opponents records coming into the game against the Patriots are a combined 10-0. (BUF 0-0, NYJ 1-0, ATL 2-0, BAL 3-0, DEN 4-0).

Week 4 Preview

Ravens (3-0) @ Patriots (2-1)

This is the game of the week right here. In 10 or 12 weeks when we’re discussing playoff scenarios, you’ll hear this game being referred to plenty of times. This could be a possible rematch in January. Baltimore is certainly the best looking team so far in 2009, mainly because their offense has shockingly put up at least 30 points in each game. The opponents they have faced have had weak defenses: Chiefs in week 1, San Diego in week 2 and Cleveland in week 3. Everyone knows about the defense the Ravens have. BUT, they did give up 24 points to the Chiefs. The Ravens currently have the top offense in the AFC in yardage (1,291) and points scored (103). But behind all the “What’s wrong with New England?” talk, the Patriots have the 3^rd highest yards per game total in the AFC at 395 YPG. They also have the 3^rd ranked defense, only allowing an average of 262 yards per game.

The last time these teams played was in Baltimore on Monday night in 2007. If you’re a real pats fan you remember this game like it was yesterday. The Pats scored on a phenomenal catch by Gaffney with 44 seconds left, and almost lost on a last second Hail Mary pass where Derrick Mason caught the ball and was tackled at the 6 inch line with no time left. They were a couple 4^th down conversions, or a bad Rex Ryan timeout, or a couple lucky calls away from not winning that game.

If the Patriots can execute they way they are capable of, they should win this one no problem.

KEYS TO THE GAME

CONVERT FIELD GOALS TO TOUCHDOWNS

Brady is just 3-10 passing in the red zone, while the offense is 2-10 scoring touchdowns in the red zone in 2009. If you want to beat any good team in this league, you have to get the ball in the end zone. They know they are not executing, so expect them to look a little sharper in the red zone this week.

WES WELKER

He is his own key because he is so important. There is a chance he may return this Sunday. If he does, it will not just be another option for Brady (especially on 3^rd down and in the red zone) but it will also free up some other receivers. If he does not, then our wide outs need to do a better job getting open all the time because as a unit they are the weak link in the offense. If the Ravens D can get by with putting their best guy on Moss, then they will blitze everyone at Brady and start focusing on the run since Galloway and Slater or whoever is out there can’t get open anyway. Hopefully they practiced on running sharper routes this week, because their receivers will play a major role in this game.

O-LINE – KEEP IT UP

The offensive line has been brilliant so far, and they need to be better against this Raven defense. The o-line has protected Brady, only allowing one sack so far this year, and they have been able to run the ball very effectively.  They must stay aggressive and be able to keep running the ball this week with the 3 back attack.

AGGRESSIVE DEFENSE

They will need to pressure Flacco. The Ravens have exactly 0 offensive threats. No running backs, no receivers, and a pretty good QB. The only way they have been able to put up points is because the opposing defenses have allowed them to, and they have been getting good field position from their defense. New England needs to continue to develop their young defense this week. Stop the run, pressure the QB.

NFL Lines For Week 4

10/4 - 10/5, 2009
PICKS IN BOLD

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog
10/4 1:00 ET	At Houston	-9	Oakland
10/4 1:00 ET	Tennessee	-3	At Jacksonville
10/4 1:00 ET	At New England	-2	Baltimore
10/4 1:00 ET	Cincinnati	-5.5	At Cleveland
10/4 1:00 ET	NY Giants	-8.5	At Kansas City
10/4 1:00 ET	At Chicago	-10.5	Detroit
10/4 1:00 ET	At Washington	-7	Tampa Bay
10/4 1:00 ET	At Indianapolis	-9	Seattle
10/4 4:05 ET	At New Orleans	-7	NY Jets
10/4 4:05 ET	Buffalo	-2	At Miami
10/4 4:15 ET	At San Francisco	-9.5	St. Louis
10/4 4:15 ET	Dallas	-3	At Denver
10/4 8:20 ET	At Pittsburgh	-6.5	San Diego

Monday Night Football Line

10/5 8:35 ET

At Minnesota

-3.5

Green Bay

Bye Weeks: Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, Philadelphia

The Power Game is Back in New England

Last week the story was, “haven’t seen the Patriots play like that in a long time.” Their poor and unmotivated performance in New York was extremely uncharacteristic of the New England Patriots. This week the story remains, “haven’t seen the Patriots play like that in a long time.” What a difference one week can make. As you figured, the Patriots would come out this week much sharper than last week from both sides of the ball. The play in this game that we have not seen in a long time from the Patriots is great success on the ground, and also a young, energetic defense taking another step towards an elite defense like the ones in the early 2000s.

Brady looked respectable, missing some throws but converting on some big ones. He missed a few open guys including Moss on a bomb downfield, and a few mid-range passes. Brady will be able to connect on those passes soon enough. He will continue to get better as the season goes on, hopefully developing back into his old self entirely by mid to late season. I say mid to late season on the contrary to NBC NFL analyst and former Patriot Rodney Harrison who, based on his own injury experiences, thinks it will take at least a full season for 100% production from Tom. I think it will be quicker thanks to the success they are having running the ball. A good running game will help Brady become comfortable quicker since he will not have as much pressure on himself if they can move the chains on the ground.

Fred Taylor was running like a beast all game. He seems to be exactly what we wished Maroney would be like. Taylor is a natural football player with a passion and feel for the game. He ran hard all game eating up consistent chunks of yardage which is better than having a guy who is inconsistent that can break off an occasional big play like Maroney. Morris would fill in once in a while and make a big play. The big guys up front were pushing around the Falcon line, and doing an excellent job protecting Brady. Outstanding job today by the offensive line, and by the backs Taylor, Morris and Faulk.

The defense looked a little shaky in the opening drive when Atlanta drove down the field 72 yards and then kicked a field goal. The most critical point in the game was holding them to 3 instead of 7 on that opening drive. After the poor performance last week in New York, the last thing you want to do is go down 7 immediately at home the following week. That would be the only long drive of the game allowed by the New England defense. Later they gave up a 59 yard TD drive and the buckled down after that.  Atlanta’s drive sequence went fumble, end of half, punt, punt, punt, punt. The defensive line pressured Ryan, and did a good enough job shutting down the run game because for some reason ATL totally abandoned it in the first half. The D has not given up more than 20 points yet this season, and recovered another fumble today, which has been 1 recovery in each game so far.

Hopefully the Wilfork injury isn’t too serious and he will be back soon. We may never know with the way the Patriots management covers injuries, but look for the defense to continue to improve each week of this season as they become more comfortable and trusting in each other as a defensive unit. Trust is very important within a defense and it takes a while to establish that connection. It will also take a little while for Brady to get his touch back, but we saw hints of that today when he erupted on the sidelines and in the locker room leading to a great second half by everyone. Be patient with this team, when they start to click on all cylinders – look out.

Terrible Show

I can sincerely say from the bottom of my heart that the Pats game last Monday was the worst showing of football I have seen from them in long time. Maybe since that one game on September 21, 2008, when the Matt Cassel led Patriots took on the subpar Dolphins and they exploded in our home stadium to humiliate us 38-13. Ronnie Brown was included in all 5 touchdowns scored by the Dolphins, running for 4 and even throwing for a touchdown.

This game against the Jets was different because we were in the game for the entire game. Not only was it a bad overall performance, but all 3 units looked lackluster, sloppy, unmotivated and sad. And I mean crying tears sad, not sad as in pathetic. This was the last thing I thought I would say when I woke up this morning. The last thing I thought I would hear was Jets fans chanting “BRADY SUCKS, BRADY SUCKS”. The Jets were trash talking us all week, their fat and sloppy head coach Rex decided to send out 3 terrible ex-Patriot players that the Jets picked up (for some reason) as captains to call the shots at the coin flip, and a 22 year old quarterback beat us.

Kerry Rhodes mentioned in his ignorant trash talk earlier in the week that it wasn’t enough just to beat the Patriots, but he wanted to embarrass them from the kickoff. The score doesn’t indicate any embarrassment but if you watched the game you would get the point. New England got humiliated if you watched the game.

The beatdown handed to us by Miami last season was exactly one year ago from tomorrow. Maybe the Patriots always suck on the second to last weekend in September. At least we know we can recover from a game like this.